: Earth/asteroid collision VERY technical look


landusepbb
09-02-2003, 11:21 AM
MOst of this is way over my head, or at least way over my inclination to try to figure it out.:D

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2003qq47.html
:eek:

SanDiegoCJ
09-02-2003, 11:23 AM
Here's a story to go along with that info.


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030902/sc_nm/science_asteroid_dc


Asteroid Heading for Earth, May Hit in 2014
1 hour, 5 minutes ago Add Science - Reuters to My Yahoo!



LONDON (Reuters) - A giant asteroid is heading for Earth and could hit in 2014, U.S. astronomers have warned British space monitors.


But for those fearing Armageddon, don't be alarmed -- the chances of a catastrophic collision are just one in 909,000.


Asteroid "2003 QQ47" will be closely monitored over the next two months. Its potential strike date is March 21, 2014, but astronomers say that any risk of impact is likely to decrease as further data is gathered.


On impact, it could have the effect of 20 million Hiroshima atomic bombs, a spokesman for the British government's Near Earth Object Information Center told BBC radio.


The Center issued the warning about the asteroid after the giant rock was first observed in New Mexico by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program. "The Near Earth Object will be observable from Earth for the next two months and astronomers will continue to track it over this period," said Dr. Alan Fitzsimmons, one of the expert team advising the Center.


Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the formation of the solar system 4.5 billion years ago. Most are kept at a safe distance from the Earth in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.


But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter can nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them plunging toward Earth.

Moose
09-02-2003, 11:27 AM
Americans are scared of everything. Collectively we need to relax, we are even spreading it to Europe now!

Just Some Asshole
09-02-2003, 11:29 AM
Originally posted by Moose
Americans are scared of everything. Collectively we need to relax, we are even spreading it to Europe now!

THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!:eek::eek:















any you hot chicks wanna fuck?:flipoff2:

Welby
09-02-2003, 11:30 AM
On impact, it could have the effect of 20 million Hiroshima atomic bombs, a spokesman for the British government's Near Earth Object Information Center told BBC radio.


Kick ass!!!!! Can't wait :D

Spaceman
09-02-2003, 11:31 AM
Originally posted by Moose
Americans are scared of everything. Collectively we need to relax, we are even spreading it to Europe now!

Yuo're right. In fact, I read the just the other day that France already surrendered to the asteroid...:flipoff2:

Joe_W
09-02-2003, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by SanDiegoCJ
Its potential strike date is March 21, 2014,

Damn it would really suck if the world ended the day before my 50th birthday :D

Moose
09-02-2003, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by Spaceman


Yuo're right. In fact, I read the just the other day that France already surrendered to the asteroid...:flipoff2:

Thats funny :D

ChevyGal
09-02-2003, 11:33 AM
Originally posted by SanDiegoCJ
But for those fearing Armageddon, don't be alarmed -- the chances of a catastrophic collision are just one in 909,000.


That's better then the odds I have of winning the lotto....

Franklin
09-02-2003, 11:41 AM
Originally posted by Joe_W


Damn it would really suck if the world ended the day before my 50th birthday :D


So if you are dead the astroid wont hi? Come on man take one for the team

withamc
09-02-2003, 11:46 AM
Well, I guess that will solve the global warming issue.

Travis Waldher
09-02-2003, 11:53 AM
yeah... and? that's just the stuff we know about heading our way. consider all the stuff we haven't seen yet.

nothin to be scared about... yeah... like we could do anything about a large asteroid headed our direction anyway.

Travis Waldher
09-02-2003, 11:54 AM
Originally posted by withamc
Well, I guess that will solve the global warming issue.

not really... there isn't a global warming issue in the first place. ;)

Haole
09-02-2003, 12:18 PM
Originally posted by Travis Waldher


not really... there isn't a global warming issue in the first place. ;)

But if everyone is dead, then it's not even a consideration.

Pazuzu
09-02-2003, 12:21 PM
Originally posted by eurobob


But if everyone is dead, then it's not even a consideration.

I won't be dead, I would get secret advanced noti..

Hey, look over there! A squirrel!!! Look look!

sneaking away after opening mouth about secret conspiracy information

Travis Waldher
09-02-2003, 12:21 PM
LOL... that just made me think of something.

Very recently in our history, the human population has sky rocketed.

How much global warming could be attributed to excessive body heat? :laughing:

MossMan
09-02-2003, 12:33 PM
Originally posted by Travis Waldher
like we could do anything about a large asteroid headed our direction anyway.

bullshit! Didn't you see Armageddon?

http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/volume_6_1/images/armageddon.jpg

:flipoff2: :flipoff2:

SanDiegoCJ
09-02-2003, 12:39 PM
Originally posted by Travis Waldher
yeah... and? that's just the stuff we know about heading our way. consider all the stuff we haven't seen yet.

nothin to be scared about... yeah... like we could do anything about a large asteroid headed our direction anyway.


Armageddon :flipoff2: :flipoff2: :flipoff2:



Rats: Beat me to it. :mad: ;)

Explorer
09-02-2003, 09:34 PM
It can't happen.

There is no way the Asteroid will obtain the proper environmental impact permits:flipoff2:

Chief yelling alot
09-02-2003, 10:49 PM
I knew I was going to die yung, just never knew from what :confused:

ChevyGal
09-02-2003, 11:19 PM
Originally posted by Franklin



So if you are dead the astroid wont hi? Come on man take one for the team


Why would an astroid say hi? :confused: :p

Haole
09-02-2003, 11:26 PM
Originally posted by Pazuzu


I won't be dead, I would get secret advanced noti..

Hey, look over there! A squirrel!!! Look look!

sneaking away after opening mouth about secret conspiracy information

What? Where?

I'm on to you, you wascally wabbit.

LandCroozer
09-02-2003, 11:31 PM
I call bullshit.

If they can predict the day, then they know where all the fawkin planets are going to be. Astonomers have been able to predict lunar eclipses, position of stars, orbits of planets since before Galileo. The gravitational forces of Jupiter? The law of gravity has been known since Newton.

I want to know what time of day and where on the earth it's going to hit. I won't be there, and wherever I am, I'll have lots of beer, food, water and guns. Only Red Star PBB members will be admitted to my compound. At $20 per year, that's only $200.. a cheap investement I'd say. :flipoff2:

-tom

Travis Waldher
09-03-2003, 04:36 AM
Originally posted by LandCroozer
I call bullshit.

If they can predict the day, then they know where all the fawkin planets are going to be. Astonomers have been able to predict lunar eclipses, position of stars, orbits of planets since before Galileo. The gravitational forces of Jupiter? The law of gravity has been known since Newton.

I want to know what time of day and where on the earth it's going to hit. I won't be there, and wherever I am, I'll have lots of beer, food, water and guns. Only Red Star PBB members will be admitted to my compound. At $20 per year, that's only $200.. a cheap investement I'd say. :flipoff2:

-tom

Planets yes, objects the size of a school bus? no.

They can predict the day based on a given objects speed. They can predict the location (target earth) based on it's current tragectory. What they can't do, is accurately predict how other celestial bodies gravity fields and solar winds will affect the objects trajectory. So they don't know for sure if it'll hit.

Rest assured, if they have a "we will get hit one" It'll be so late in the game we are fawked. And any "armageadon" style save our asses approach will be pointless.

You gotta keep in mind. that depending on the size of the object that may or may not eventually strike earth. You could be on the other side of the planet and it just won't matter.

RoundLights
09-03-2003, 05:03 AM
Originally posted by Travis Waldher


You gotta keep in mind. that depending on the size of the object that may or may not eventually strike earth. You could be on the other side of the planet and it just won't matter.

Yeah but atleast we'll get a kickass fireworks show when they send up all the ICBM's after it

Bobzooki
09-03-2003, 05:43 AM
Originally posted by Travis Waldher
What they can't do, is accurately predict how other celestial bodies gravity fields and solar winds will affect the objects trajectory.

Oh...

So the Solar Wind is going to blow the asteroid off course, and it won't hit us after all... Riiiiight.

OK, so I'll fire up my random mathematical wild-assed extrapolation calculator, and see...



1 chance in 909,000 that it'll hit...

15 Kilotons (Hiroshima Bomb) * 20 Million = 300 GigaTons (!)

909,000/300,000,000 = 100% chance of 330 Kilotons, or a 10% chance of 3.3 Megatons, or a 1% chance of 33 Megatons.

But because it's scheduled to hit right on the equinox, the angle of incidence, theta, is perpendicular to the polar misalignment vector, causing inverse coriolis modulation, guaranteeing atmospheric displacement, or in other words...

We're FAWKED!