I recently regeared my axles from 4.10's to 4.88's in my '98 TJ. I have no clue how far my speedometer is off now. I run 32" BFG A/T's and it's a 2.5L if that matters. I have a feeling it's reading 5 mph faster.
Don't use the speedo, use the odometer. Find a road with mile posts and drive 2-5 of them and see how far off your odo is compared to real (percentage). Then buy a speedo gear that same percentage different than what you have now. If you read lower than real, buy less teeth. If you read more miles than real, buy more teeth. What do you have now? Pull it and see, crawl under your Jeep with a 1/2" wrench. Be sure to get the plastic housing rotated to the right position for the tooth count you have and will buy.
If you know someone with a GPS you can get an idea, but keep in mind that it's a percentage number so it's going to float depending on speed. Or you could get a new speedo gear: http://www.raingler.com/tech/speedoChart.asp
You're probably going to have to purchase through the dealer anyway, may as well ask their opinion as well. They should tell you the same as the chart.
I suggested that too. Apparently the OP is content with a good guess and others recommendations rather than being sure. OP, good luck Sport.
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