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Old 05-16-2019, 08:01 AM   #1776 (permalink)
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Funny how everyone is talking about the dam, when this whole incident has nothing to do with the dam. The spillway was built on bedrock 100s of yards from the dam.

12' from overtopping the dam is about 60' taller than the overflow wier, sooooo do the math on that.

The dam is fine, it's a massive chunk of earth that's been there for 60 years without even wincing.
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Old 05-16-2019, 08:35 AM   #1777 (permalink)
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Latest info on possible dam failure.


https://thecommonsenseshow.com/activ...coming-failure
That's some pretty high level stupidity in that article.
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Old 05-16-2019, 10:13 AM   #1778 (permalink)
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what planet is that fucking fool from?
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Old 05-16-2019, 10:30 AM   #1779 (permalink)
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That's some pretty high level stupidity in that article.
That's an understatement...

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Old 05-16-2019, 02:23 PM   #1780 (permalink)
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That's some pretty high level stupidity in that article.
The comments section only gets better, Holy shit there's some unhinged crazy.
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:43 PM   #1781 (permalink)
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For those of us who aren't educated on the subject. Could someone enlighten the class as to what specifically is faulty about the evaluation given in that article?
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:55 PM   #1782 (permalink)
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That's some pretty high level stupidity in that article.
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what planet is that fucking fool from?
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That's an understatement...

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The comments section only gets better, Holy shit there's some unhinged crazy.
That website is like PAE, AF, and thatguy12345 had a baby. Sovereign citizens of the world unite!
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:56 PM   #1783 (permalink)
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For those of us who aren't educated on the subject. Could someone enlighten the class as to what specifically is faulty about the evaluation given in that article?
Everything
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:04 PM   #1784 (permalink)
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For those of us who aren't educated on the subject. Could someone enlighten the class as to what specifically is faulty about the evaluation given in that article?
There are a lot of assumptions.

The article reads like a highschooler writing an essay about something. Very little technical data or explanation of that data. Only highlights used to grab attention without actually explaining anything. Reading that article was like reading the Enquirer...only hitting the highlights and moving on.

Examples:

"This is significant because this could greatly add to the inflow and the outflow data which shows an extreme imbalance." What are the balance levels? What kind of impact will there be on the drainage area? Is there any reserve? Is there a significant change in the levee/dam material consistency at higher elevations?

"And when we consider that the dam is 12 feet from overtopping, the danger multiplies exponentially." 12' from overtopping could be 11' of no problem depending on the free board elevation.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:16 PM   #1785 (permalink)
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shown outflow numbers that are the basis of the panic are low to medium flow through the powerplant only. 125,000 cfs I think it is that the downstream levees can hold back. discharge rates to save the dam from overtopping, ignoring downstream flood risk, can go near 3x that if I recall right.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:19 PM   #1786 (permalink)
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For those of us who aren't educated on the subject. Could someone enlighten the class as to what specifically is faulty about the evaluation given in that article?
Dude is crazy.

I'll take a shot at some of the things that stood out to me (not local)

"12 feet from overtopping" - No it's not. It's 12' from the overflow spillway.

"Paul Preston has previously related to me that the California State Government has a financial motivation to see the dam fail based on the following:
-The State of California is broke and the state is quickly reaching a state of insolvency.
-If the Oroville Dam fails, the state will instantly quality for over a billion dollars in federal disaster aid.
-The state has motive to see the dam fail."


Makes it look like there are three reasons. Read it closely and he only asserts 1 reason. He thinks the state has deemed it profitable for the damn to fail. He gives zero data to backup the assertion that a) it is somehow profitable or B) the state believes it to be profitable.

Based on these facts, one can understand why when security of the Oroville Dam disappeared for 32 hours, foul play would be suspected.

As noted above there are no facts relevant to his assertion above, only fact is that Cali is in poor $ shape, nothing to do with this situation at all. You can suspect foul play all you want, but if you are going to pass yourself off as a journalist, why not go do some interviews of the people doing security and find out what their statement is?

We have already seen the state dynamite the earthen sides of the dam and the constant flow of trucks and their subsequent vibrations are of concern to the locals in that they believe that the activity could contribute to the failure of the dam.

That's the fastest way to remove poor material and trucks are the best way to bring in suitable material. Vibrations are used to compact soil at every construction site in the world and they strengthen the soil. But trucks don't pass much vibration at all especially in comparison to an earthen damn's ability to dampen it.

I am told that the California data which speaks to "inflow" and "outflow" are being purposely understated. However, even if we use California's state government figures, one can only conclude that disaster is coming and with the water level only 12 feet from the top, disaster is coming sooner rather than later.

If your told it, source it. That's how journalism works. If you can't source it, you don't use it your story.

Also in his data table, he doesn't identify what riv rel is. Either way, the in and out difference is about 1500-2000 CFS. The area behind orovill according the first google search is 25 mi squared. There are about 27.9 million square feet in one square mile. You are going to have to do that for a long fucking time to make up 12 feet of depth with no change to the discharge.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:30 PM   #1787 (permalink)
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Cool deal. I don't know anything about this so I'm glad to see specifics.
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Old 05-16-2019, 07:17 PM   #1788 (permalink)
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Dude is crazy.

I'll take a shot at some of the things that stood out to me (not local)

"12 feet from overtopping" - No it's not. It's 12' from the overflow spillway.

"Paul Preston has previously related to me that the California State Government has a financial motivation to see the dam fail based on the following:
-The State of California is broke and the state is quickly reaching a state of insolvency.
-If the Oroville Dam fails, the state will instantly quality for over a billion dollars in federal disaster aid.
-The state has motive to see the dam fail."


Makes it look like there are three reasons. Read it closely and he only asserts 1 reason. He thinks the state has deemed it profitable for the damn to fail. He gives zero data to backup the assertion that a) it is somehow profitable or B) the state believes it to be profitable.

Based on these facts, one can understand why when security of the Oroville Dam disappeared for 32 hours, foul play would be suspected.

As noted above there are no facts relevant to his assertion above, only fact is that Cali is in poor $ shape, nothing to do with this situation at all. You can suspect foul play all you want, but if you are going to pass yourself off as a journalist, why not go do some interviews of the people doing security and find out what their statement is?

We have already seen the state dynamite the earthen sides of the dam and the constant flow of trucks and their subsequent vibrations are of concern to the locals in that they believe that the activity could contribute to the failure of the dam.

That's the fastest way to remove poor material and trucks are the best way to bring in suitable material. Vibrations are used to compact soil at every construction site in the world and they strengthen the soil. But trucks don't pass much vibration at all especially in comparison to an earthen damn's ability to dampen it.

I am told that the California data which speaks to "inflow" and "outflow" are being purposely understated. However, even if we use California's state government figures, one can only conclude that disaster is coming and with the water level only 12 feet from the top, disaster is coming sooner rather than later.

If your told it, source it. That's how journalism works. If you can't source it, you don't use it your story.

Also in his data table, he doesn't identify what riv rel is. Either way, the in and out difference is about 1500-2000 CFS. The area behind orovill according the first google search is 25 mi squared. There are about 27.9 million square feet in one square mile. You are going to have to do that for a long fucking time to make up 12 feet of depth with no change to the discharge.
Also, the "leaking grouting that is causing the water down the spillway" is actually from gaps between the metal swing gates and the framework that they sit in (if it had a perfect fit the rubber seals wouldn't let the gates swing.

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Old 05-16-2019, 08:25 PM   #1789 (permalink)
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Also, the "leaking grouting that is causing the water down the spillway" is actually from gaps between the metal swing gates and the framework that they sit in (if it had a perfect fit the rubber seals wouldn't let the gates swing.

Aaron Z
Yeah, also if you get too tight of a fit, concrete and steel contract and expand due to temps at different rates. If you fit them too tight and the steel expands faster than the concrete, the gate can get locked into place. I'm not familiar enough with the spillway not being local to comment on it. I'm certain they aren't using grout on the spillway to try keep water from coming up through the concrete though.
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