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Old 02-26-2019, 10:29 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Shopping for a 5kW solar power system

I know there a few people on here that are into it and I'm looking at trying to put one in this summer, trying to get a cost in mind to see if the payback really is there.
Deets:
I currently use around 500kWh per month year round.
Wood heat, wood/electric hot water, I don't have gas/propane.
Energy billed at 19.5 cents/kWh. The utility company will do net metering so I'd get a 9 cent/kWh credit for excess power. Credits can be banked up to a year.
I'm allowed up to 20kWh of grid connected equipment, I need to get some cost ideas to calculate panel capacity that makes sense. Based on the PVWatts website, I'd need a 15kWh system to make 500kWh in the worst month (december). A 6kWh system would get me close to a break even point on a kWh basis.

I'm building a shop this summer and am going to try to put the roof line due east-west so I'll get a nice big south facing 6/12 spot to put panels, I'd probably want to tinker with them year round and adjust the tilt monthly so maybe they go on the ground. Open to suggestion on that.

We get really short days, lots of snow, and lots of clouds Dec.-Feb. and very long days and mostly sunny during the summer so the annual credit window is critical.

Right now I'm thinking a single grid tied inverter makes the most sense so if I want to add more panels, wind, or etc. later it would be easier, but some others in the area have gone with microinverter panels and are happy.

Thoughts? What should I be researching more?

Here is my PVReports data for a 5kWh system
Quote:
Month Solar Radiation
( kWh / m2 / day )
AC Energy
( kWh )
Value
( $ )
January 1.67 227 44
February 2.71 327 63
March 4.68 608 118
April 6.16 740 143
May 6.18 749 145
June 6.55 750 145
July 6.69 777 150
August 6.29 723 140
September 4.80 549 106
October 3.14 395 77
November 1.77 224 43
December 1.36 180 35
Annual 4.33 6,249 $ 1,209
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:12 AM   #2 (permalink)
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From what I have seen, the system will pay for itself, in 10-15 years. The panels are only good for about 20 years.

There was a good series on youtube that covers the process he went through with a Tesla- solar city system. It's definitely worth the watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s6kN9Ezws0

He has videos covering the whole process.

I am hoping that they get the solar shingles figured out by the time I need a new roof. They are much more durable than regular asphalt shingles when it comes to hail and wind. I would much rather go that route. Going off the grid would be my ideal situation.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:19 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I'd probably want to tinker with them year round and adjust the tilt monthly
you MIGHT adjust them once. you will never do it again. No one adjusts their array.


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microinverters
^^ that is residential industry standard.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:21 AM   #4 (permalink)
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I am hoping that they get the solar shingles figured out by the time I need a new roof.
not going to happen.

You are 20+ years from "affordable", efficient, solar shingles being readily available.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:40 AM   #5 (permalink)
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When I visited Maui, I couldn't believe all the solar panels on houses. Then someone mentioned power in Maui is $.35 a KWH , and they have lots of sun year around. Probably makes sense in Maui. Here in NW MT, we pay .07-.09 KWH, lots of cloudy short days in winter. No way there is a payoff for solar at the current prices here. I guess we are lucky with lots of hydro power.


At $1200 a year credit (probably best case), 10k initial investment (guess), would be about a ten year payback figuring 5% net present value on the 10K invested. (in other words if you took 10k and invested it in hooker inc at a 5% return) .
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:41 AM   #6 (permalink)
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not going to happen.

You are 20+ years from "affordable", efficient, solar shingles being readily available.
That will be about when I will should need a new roof. Probably won't be in this property that long though.

To me They made a lot more sense than putting panels over top of an existing roof introducing all kinds of potential failure points for water ingress.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:45 AM   #7 (permalink)
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you MIGHT adjust them once. you will never do it again. No one adjusts their array.
They do here. I know of a few people that do it 4 times a year. The panels are mounted on a pole with a handle that they can adjust from the ground. Around 50 degrees difference in 6 months.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:49 AM   #8 (permalink)
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They do here. I know of a few people that do it 4 times a year. The panels are mounted on a pole with a handle that they can adjust from the ground. Around 50 degrees difference in 6 months.
I've been designing solar racking for 20 years. The minimal gain in adjusting, (or even in fully passive tracking) isn't worth the time or effort in a residential setting. We quit selling trackers years ago and have all but phased out any adjustablility because it adds cost to the system with no value add.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:55 AM   #9 (permalink)
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https://www.wholesalesolar.com/18912...ar-310w-panels

Something like that would probably work nice. I have LG panels, but i have the same inverter system. I am also in CO, so way more sun.

I am interested in this as i plan on moving back to the UP and wondering if solar actually is worth it there. Where i am now it definitely is.

EDIT: I also think the 30% tax credit begins dropping off at the end of 2019. 30% of components and install costs

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Old 02-26-2019, 12:02 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I've been designing solar racking for 20 years. The minimal gain in adjusting, (or even in fully passive tracking) isn't worth the time or effort in a residential setting. We quit selling trackers years ago and have all but phased out any adjustablility because it adds cost to the system with no value add.
You underestimate the power of a bored yooper!

The setups I've seen are really simple ground cranked. The extra angle in the winter really helps with snow shedding which could be one reason it's more common here. (300" per year.)
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Old 02-26-2019, 12:06 PM   #11 (permalink)
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snow shedding which could be one reason it's more common here. (300" per year.)
That I can believe.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:16 PM   #12 (permalink)
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If I had enough land to practically put solar on the ground, I'd probly have done it by now, as I am capable of doing the entire job myself. Here in WA, there isn't enough payback to pay a company to come out and put a system on my roof. Electricity is pretty cheap, and we have lots of hydro, so there really isn't much incentive. I probly would not bother with an adjustable system, even this far north.

The micro inverters don't seem to be as economical as a monolithic inverter, but the trade offs are significant. If a micro dies, you still get most of your peak generation, and you're out less than $200 (I think?) for a replacement. You should be able to replace one with nothing more than a screw driver in five minutes. You can also add panels with relative impunity.

You definitely don't want a system capable of producing enough in December, unless you're off the grid. Go for a year over year break-even, or it'll never pay for itself, because you're never going to get paid for excess. The best you can hope for is a yearly average bill of near zero.

Check out this crappy website and see if you can beat panel prices anywhere else...

Solar Panels & Systems - Sun Electronics Solar Panels

Hey @sceep, any opinions on ^ these ^ guys?
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:27 PM   #13 (permalink)
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How does solar work when the sun doesn’t shine between the months of oct thru April. I’m 218 miles south from you and during the winter the sun never shines here let alone in Yooper central. Please do this and give me data as I would like to set an array up.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:30 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Hey @sceep, any opinions on ^ these ^ guys?

Never heard of them.

Their "SUN-SWH Standard Mount Rail" appears to be a direct knock-off of one of my very first patents. It also appears to be weak AF. I wouldn't be using it in FL thats for sure.

With the module prices they are advertising I'd guess they are importing factory 2nds and "refurbishing" them or buying overstock from distributors on discontinued models.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:33 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I've been designing solar racking for 20 years. The minimal gain in adjusting, (or even in fully passive tracking) isn't worth the time or effort in a residential setting. We quit selling trackers years ago and have all but phased out any adjustablility because it adds cost to the system with no value add.
What latitude you at? The op is 200 miles north of the 45 parallel.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:33 PM   #16 (permalink)
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How does solar work when the sun doesn’t shine between the months of oct thru April. I’m 218 miles south from you and during the winter the sun never shines here let alone in Yooper central. Please do this and give me data as I would like to set an array up.
They will still make power, just not as much.

non-relevant example:

I have a solar motion light under my canopy (the one casting light against the building, not the headlights). As in, 100% shaded all the time, 0 direct sunlight ever. It still works just fine. Goes on and off 10-15x a night.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:38 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I bought my system from these guys. 10.6kw system, 2 5000w inverters in 2013. Haven't had an electric bill since.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:44 PM   #18 (permalink)
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With the module prices they are advertising I'd guess they are importing factory 2nds and "refurbishing" them or buying overstock from distributors on discontinued models.
It appears to be all over the map, from new A-grades with and without UL certs, to used panels from all over the world. I think I saw some from Peru or something some time back.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:57 PM   #19 (permalink)
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I remember the first tracker I saw used freon to move the panels to follow the sun.
Hey Sceep you do anything with vehicle mounted panels?
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:06 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I remember the first tracker I saw used freon to move the panels to follow the sun.
Hey Sceep you do anything with vehicle mounted panels?
We designed the freon trackers somewhere around 2002. they worked great if you could get em installed without losing the gas.

We no longer have any RV racks or anything like that. havent for years.

Edit:

dang. old school. had to dig deep to find this.
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:03 PM   #21 (permalink)
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My personal experience was with wholesale solar out of California. Easy process. Went back and forth a bit on sizing and design. The sales folks are actually pretty knowledgeable and very helpful in designing a system. The kit was very complete with everything necessary from racks and hardware to wire. Saved a shit ton over one of the solar installers. About 60% of what you pay is marketing budget - that's straight from the solar industry association. You can figure out how the rest of the math works on savings DIY.

I would not do a tracking system. It worked out a lot cheaper to just add more panels. It was actually cheaper to add more panels than to even put an optimal tilt on them with a fixed tilt rack on my roof.

The Solar Edge inverter and optimizer setup I have has been seamless so far a few years in. Only minor beef is that the automatic disconnect box is plastic and the inverter housing is painted aluminum. So they have faded to different color over time. I don't really care. Just something I noticed. It's the bottom part of the inverter in this picture:



Had an issue with my local building department and we had a conference call with Solar Edge (who were easy to get on the phone and cleared up the stupidity of my building department). I'm not anti gov, but the building department didn't believe that the auto disconnect switch was built in - even though it literally says that on the box, on the side of the unit its self, and on the ETL listing on the spec sheet. That's the kind of assholes my county hires to do this. And that was to get a building permit to start - not as an inspection issue.


And don't expect to make money on it long term. Wholesale energy market solar generation is around $.02/kwh. Your utility (actually your neighbors) isn't going to buy it from you at $.09 forever when it can be purchased on the market for $.02. I would expect it to be valued at market price at some point in the next decade. It's all but guaranteed that it must come in line with market pricing or the financial structure of the utility will fail eventually. Your neighbors won't subsidize you forever. And if everyone has solar they can't all subsidize eachother at the same time and still have no energy bills. So plan on the value at $.02/kwh and count the rest you get now as a bonus.

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Old 02-26-2019, 04:36 PM   #22 (permalink)
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We designed the freon trackers somewhere around 2002. they worked great if you could get em installed without losing the gas.

We no longer have any RV racks or anything like that. havent for years.

Edit:

dang. old school. had to dig deep to find this.
Hmm the one I remember was from Zome works in the 80s.
Bummer on the RV racks I maybe called upon to mount a set on a van this summer.
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:47 PM   #23 (permalink)
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And don't expect to make money on it long term. Wholesale energy market solar generation is around $.02/kwh. Your utility (actually your neighbors) isn't going to buy it from you at $.09 forever when it can be purchased on the market for $.02. I would expect it to be valued at market price at some point in the next decade. It's all but guaranteed that it must come in line with market pricing or the financial structure of the utility will fail eventually. Your neighbors won't subsidize you forever. And if everyone has solar they can't all subsidize eachother at the same time and still have no energy bills. So plan on the value at $.02/kwh and count the rest you get now as a bonus.
This is a good way to look at it. I have net metering march-march, and any excess at that point get cashed out at $0.04/kWh. Now that I also have more than just me in the house i wish i would have gotten a couple more panels.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:08 PM   #24 (permalink)
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My personal experience was with wholesale solar out of California. Easy process. Went back and forth a bit on sizing and design. The sales folks are actually pretty knowledgeable and very helpful in designing a system. The kit was very complete with everything necessary from racks and hardware to wire. Saved a shit ton over one of the solar installers. About 60% of what you pay is marketing budget - that's straight from the solar industry association. You can figure out how the rest of the math works on savings DIY.

I would not do a tracking system. It worked out a lot cheaper to just add more panels. It was actually cheaper to add more panels than to even put an optimal tilt on them with a fixed tilt rack on my roof.

The Solar Edge inverter and optimizer setup I have has been seamless so far a few years in. Only minor beef is that the automatic disconnect box is plastic and the inverter housing is painted aluminum. So they have faded to different color over time. I don't really care. Just something I noticed. It's the bottom part of the inverter in this picture:



Had an issue with my local building department and we had a conference call with Solar Edge (who were easy to get on the phone and cleared up the stupidity of my building department). I'm not anti gov, but the building department didn't believe that the auto disconnect switch was built in - even though it literally says that on the box, on the side of the unit its self, and on the ETL listing on the spec sheet. That's the kind of assholes my county hires to do this. And that was to get a building permit to start - not as an inspection issue.


And don't expect to make money on it long term. Wholesale energy market solar generation is around $.02/kwh. Your utility (actually your neighbors) isn't going to buy it from you at $.09 forever when it can be purchased on the market for $.02. I would expect it to be valued at market price at some point in the next decade. It's all but guaranteed that it must come in line with market pricing or the financial structure of the utility will fail eventually. Your neighbors won't subsidize you forever. And if everyone has solar they can't all subsidize eachother at the same time and still have no energy bills. So plan on the value at $.02/kwh and count the rest you get now as a bonus.
Power up here is actually very expensive, the utility pays $0.08 wholesale, it's another $.11 distribution fee, and $25 a month access fee. My bill is always over $115, and there is a 7% rate increase coming this summer when a coal plant gets shuttered.
MPSC says they have to credit it at that rate, I don't expect to get paid, just use the grid as a battery and I'll end up making more kWh than I use to break even on a $ basis.
Of course things can change, but for the forseeable future power will be high and getting higher here.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:16 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I've been designing solar racking for 20 years. The minimal gain in adjusting, (or even in fully passive tracking) isn't worth the time or effort in a residential setting. We quit selling trackers years ago and have all but phased out any adjustablility because it adds cost to the system with no value add.
maybe its because hes farther north?
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