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Old 03-26-2020, 12:16 PM   #4576 (permalink)
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Comprehensive study in a top level journal trying to get at the true mortality rate in China:

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About 1.4 percent of people in Wuhan, China, who became ill with the coronavirus died, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Nature.

The finding is consistent with a study from last month which also found the case fatality rate — or the number of deaths divided by the number of diagnosed cases — to be 1.4 percent, based on statistics across China.

The new paper focuses specifically on the city of Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated.

The death rate is much higher than that of the influenza, which infects millions of people each year but only kills about 0.1 percent of those who get it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...virus-n1163881
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:20 PM   #4577 (permalink)
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Interesting article on Germany. Nothing earthshaking, but good reporting on what possible factors could be causing the low death rate, and why it's so hard to compare across countries (as everyone in here is aware).

https://news.yahoo.com/why-few-germa...160658416.html

On thing I did notice is no one seems willing to address race/ethnicity as a possible factor.
Don't touch a taboo subject.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:30 PM   #4578 (permalink)
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Isolating just the sick people would work best if you also know who all the healthy people are. We will never know that, and especially since this can apparently spread by asymptomatic people you can't make an assumption here.

My theory on deaths in various places - Germans don't smoke nearly as much as Italians and Spanish people. I mean they are like chimneys.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:31 PM   #4579 (permalink)
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As for the race card - the vast majority of infected people in WI are middle-aged blacks in Milwaukee so far.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:37 PM   #4580 (permalink)
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Shit is getting real.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:42 PM   #4581 (permalink)
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People are willing to share. They might take this one down, not sure.
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:43 PM   #4582 (permalink)
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:45 PM   #4583 (permalink)
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lmao donut
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:47 PM   #4584 (permalink)
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People are willing to share. They might take this one down, not sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAF_...ature=youtu.be
hahaha moar awesomer
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:12 PM   #4585 (permalink)
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does that modify you "take people keys away" and "stay inside, save a life" stance?
Nit picking away, are you?

Ok, if people are out and about alone, they can't infect themselves or others. Outdoors, in nature. It's perfect.
Not sure why it's being banned.
It's fucking common sense.

Stay inside means don't go out for stupid shit. Think. Don't go to the 7/11 13 times a day to get a snickers because "shopping is allowed"... (texas)

Isn't this board the proponent of common sense? What's with you guys suddenly?


The article about Germany is correct. Boring, but that's them.

Also: We <-- Germans simply have very great genes.
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:13 PM   #4586 (permalink)
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Well...here is something to think about.

Was texting my buddy more, and he has developed pink eye now (2% of COVID cases develop it).

Let's say all the negatives in the tests are false negatives. Let's also assume they're not lying and faking symptoms to get tested.

If this were the case, the mortality rate would drop DRASTICALLY. Pennsylvania alone would add 16,000 cases.

We know they have requirements for tests. I'm pretty sure it takes X amount of virus to trigger a positive. Perhaps the 80% of mild cases don't have enough virus due to immune response to test positive.

Just a thought.
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:19 PM   #4587 (permalink)
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People are willing to share. They might take this one down, not sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAF_...ature=youtu.be
That one is quite nice. That's a new version of it. Saw a Facebook one last week..could have been a brit or a german, really can't remember.
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:38 PM   #4588 (permalink)
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All right, if someone is 99 years old and wants to go boating. Fffs edge case bullshit.

I do see your argument, don't get me wrong. Everyone should be able to decide what is right and what is wrong.
But they aren't deciding very well.

I'm saying it's "too late" for the government to step in, the spread is occurring right now.
I am saying fellow pirates need to know that almost every big town will follow NY.
If you get sick in the next couple weeks, you just might be fucked. Do not be fucked. Protect your loved ones.


It is too late to isolate the sick people. Your concept is not realistic.

edge case bullshit? the overwhelming majority (70%+? i don't remember offhand) of the dead, here in WA are people over the age of 60. the majority of those, no hard numbers given, had underlying issues. I'm not saying "fuck old people", but i am saying, this is pushing more people over the edge, than it is bringing them to it and tossing them <--- that still will happen though. So, if we can make exceptions for the highest risk people and say "they are old, let them live their final days how they see fit and protect themselves how they see fit" then WHY can we not do that for the vast majority of people outside the 'hot spot' areas who are generally low risk and can be reasonably protected with the basic advisories issued early on? 1) avoiding unrequired travel 2) working from home 3) avoiding large groups 4) general sanitation and the like.

even after the spread has occured to whatever point, sick people still need to isolate. we tell people to stay home with the damned flu, how or why would this be any different? If somebody shows up in your town and is sick, they need to isolate themselves instead of spreading things about. that will always work and is always an option, but requires awareness so people know when they are having issues and when to be concerned. not this 'if you have been where somebody has breathed in the last 3 hours, you have covid19 and need to isolate" nonsense.

i very well may get sick in the next few weeks. shit happens. i'll still post a sign that says your risks are generally low

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Nit picking away, are you?

Ok, if people are out and about alone, they can't infect themselves or others. Outdoors, in nature. It's perfect.
Not sure why it's being banned.
It's fucking common sense.

Stay inside means don't go out for stupid shit. Think. Don't go to the 7/11 13 times a day to get a snickers because "shopping is allowed"... (texas)

Isn't this board the proponent of common sense? What's with you guys suddenly?


The article about Germany is correct. Boring, but that's them.

Also: We <-- Germans simply have very great genes.
you would think this board was about common sense, but we have fear mongers among us who support public shaming with the use of things like "just stay inside, ya asshole" and "take moms/dads keys" and "the government is taking appropriate steps that aren't over reaching"

now we have a situation where the only LEGAL fucking shit to is, go to the store 10x a day

i am not and have never been a proponent of "let's do nothing". that is why i'm also not worried about calling as bullshit all the scare charts that 'if we do nothing 100 million americans will die in 2 weeks (hyperbole on my part here) or that "if you go about your normal daily routine, which obviously involves visiting your sick grandparents, we will all die"

that is the kind of shit that has me so absolutely livid over this stuff. i'd like to think i'm a generally reasonable person, the sort of closures that come from these incredibly broad shelter in place orders THAT WILL BE ENFORCED ARBITRARILY are well beyond reasonable.

for some reason, folks seem reluctant to see that
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:46 PM   #4589 (permalink)
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Do you have enough data to tell whether King and/or Snohomish counties are seeing a real downward trend in new cases?
haven't been paying attention to the counties, but i guess we can. updated 15 minutes ago

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...e1cf52e2c3d560

king 1359 cases 94 death

snohomish 634 cases 16 death

WA DOH showing 2580 cases and 123 death 31,712 negative results. that testing result number hasn't changed for a couple days

johns hopkins shows WA at 2600 cases and 133 deaths

king 1359 cases 100 death

snohomish 634 cases and 16 death.

91-DIVOC : Flip the script on COVID-19

claims to be up to date, their log chart for WA shows 10% or under growth in cases since 17 mar and normalized as 1.23x growth over previous 22 days

edit: WA death rate growth is about 10% since the 14th of march
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:52 PM   #4590 (permalink)
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Isolating just the sick people would work best if you also know who all the healthy people are. We will never know that, and especially since this can apparently spread by asymptomatic people you can't make an assumption here.

My theory on deaths in various places - Germans don't smoke nearly as much as Italians and Spanish people. I mean they are like chimneys.
this is what has been sort of the kicker. several groups, WHO and CDC included, are saying that the asymptomatic spread is very small for this, compared to other viral infections.

will that remain the case? whose to say, but that is where they are focusing most
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:56 PM   #4591 (permalink)
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"

that is the kind of shit that has me so absolutely livid over this stuff. i'd like to think i'm a generally reasonable person, the sort of closures that come from these incredibly broad shelter in place orders THAT WILL BE ENFORCED ARBITRARILY are well beyond reasonable.

for some reason, folks seem reluctant to see that
I see it. All my neighbors see it. The vast majority of people here that I have had any dialogue with understand the reason and need to limit personal interaction. Like a lot of our personal freedoms, a few asshle can ruin it for everyone else. Doesn't matter if its "free speech" religion, right to bear arms, driving safely sober with insurance, taking Frank's handicap parking space all of it. The enforcement is not by robots, hence it is arbitrary and unfair across the board. The stupid and self centered will fuck it up for everyone else. They always do and always will. Why cant we just kill them off ?
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:59 PM   #4592 (permalink)
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and us takes first place……


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Old 03-26-2020, 02:00 PM   #4593 (permalink)
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Ok, if people are out and about alone, they can't infect themselves or others. Outdoors, in nature. It's perfect.
Not sure why it's being banned.
It's fucking common sense.
going out fishing/hunting/wheeling/camping/etc? probably need fuel to get there. might need some snacks, beer, or extra supplies.

best fishing/hunting/wheeling/camping/etc? usually near relatively remote cities.

so if large numbers of people who feel absolutely healthy, but in reality have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, head off to their local fishing/hunting/wheeling/camping/etc spot...there is a very real likelihood they'll spread the virus into small communities.

the fisher/hunter/wheeler/camper/etc eventually heads home to their major city with multiple hospitals and multiple ICU beds. if that person ends up with bad effects they will have better access to necessary care. that gas station attendant in the middle of no where? how good of care do they have access to? The small towns with minimal supplies but now a virus requiring ~10% of people infected to be hospitalized...how do they adequately provide care?

all because some jack wagon couldn't be bothered to delay a trip...
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Old 03-26-2020, 02:03 PM   #4594 (permalink)
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this is what has been sort of the kicker. several groups, WHO and CDC included, are saying that the asymptomatic spread is very small for this, compared to other viral infections.

will that remain the case? whose to say, but that is where they are focusing most
If that is so, and I don't think it is, then it should be far far easier to control. And yet it is not. That is why China at the onset shut down 60 million people. There was no way to identify the sick and stop them from vectoring. Testing wasn't available..

However, I do go back to the Cruise ship data which is still the best data set we have to date and it seems to suggest this, that the infection was very hard to pass on even under crowded confined space with old people. . .. . so . .. . . WTF ?
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Old 03-26-2020, 02:09 PM   #4595 (permalink)
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and us takes first place……


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw
Just came in to post that.

They gotta be #1 at everything, even if it means a few people gotta die.
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Old 03-26-2020, 02:10 PM   #4596 (permalink)
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this is what has been sort of the kicker. several groups, WHO and CDC included, are saying that the asymptomatic spread is very small for this, compared to other viral infections.

will that remain the case? whose to say, but that is where they are focusing most
Symptoms keep being added. Yesterday the state health director added possible GI issues, nausea, and headaches.

It's bad enough that you've got people self-diagnosing illnesses ever since pharma has been allowed to run commercials ("ooh! I bets I gots moderate to severe psoriasis!! The TV done said so!") but now someone's gonna sneeze twice before they go to bed and want to have a test done first thing in the morning.

The hype is getting to be overdone. I know our governor is old enough to remember when frogs overran Egypt, but damn. It's getting out of hand.

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Old 03-26-2020, 02:12 PM   #4597 (permalink)
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and us takes first place……


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw
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Old 03-26-2020, 02:13 PM   #4598 (permalink)
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Just came in to post that.

They gotta be #1 at everything, even if it means a few people gotta die.
Everyone else is just making a half ass'ed attempt

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Old 03-26-2020, 02:15 PM   #4599 (permalink)
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edge case bullshit? the overwhelming majority (70%+? i don't remember offhand) of the dead, here in WA are people over the age of 60. the majority of those, no hard numbers given, had underlying issues. I'm not saying "fuck old people", but i am saying, this is pushing more people over the edge, than it is bringing them to it and tossing them <--- that still will happen though. So, if we can make exceptions for the highest risk people and say "they are old, let them live their final days how they see fit and protect themselves how they see fit" then WHY can we not do that for the vast majority of people outside the 'hot spot' areas who are generally low risk and can be reasonably protected with the basic advisories issued early on? 1) avoiding unrequired travel 2) working from home 3) avoiding large groups 4) general sanitation and the like.

even after the spread has occured to whatever point, sick people still need to isolate. we tell people to stay home with the damned flu, how or why would this be any different? If somebody shows up in your town and is sick, they need to isolate themselves instead of spreading things about. that will always work and is always an option, but requires awareness so people know when they are having issues and when to be concerned. not this 'if you have been where somebody has breathed in the last 3 hours, you have covid19 and need to isolate" nonsense.

i very well may get sick in the next few weeks. shit happens. i'll still post a sign that says your risks are generally low



you would think this board was about common sense, but we have fear mongers among us who support public shaming with the use of things like "just stay inside, ya asshole" and "take moms/dads keys" and "the government is taking appropriate steps that aren't over reaching"

now we have a situation where the only LEGAL fucking shit to is, go to the store 10x a day

i am not and have never been a proponent of "let's do nothing". that is why i'm also not worried about calling as bullshit all the scare charts that 'if we do nothing 100 million americans will die in 2 weeks (hyperbole on my part here) or that "if you go about your normal daily routine, which obviously involves visiting your sick grandparents, we will all die"

that is the kind of shit that has me so absolutely livid over this stuff. i'd like to think i'm a generally reasonable person, the sort of closures that come from these incredibly broad shelter in place orders THAT WILL BE ENFORCED ARBITRARILY are well beyond reasonable.

for some reason, folks seem reluctant to see that

Well for one, I'd agree if this is mid February and we are talking plans how to deal with it

If you go to Seattle? and look around on a normal day, how many normal, sane, down to earth people do you see? Half? Two thirds? The count of idiots is still (Trump voice a LOT.
What is your plan for the millions of .... well I can't say idiots can I? For the tp hoarders?
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Old 03-26-2020, 02:18 PM   #4600 (permalink)
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Everyone else is just making a half ass'ed attempt
Not us, it's whole ass or nothing.
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